ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — A tropical disturbance over the Lesser Antilles could become a tropical depression as early as this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Questions remain, however, on where the system may travel to and what its overall strength may be.
Forecasters said the area of disturbed weather has a 60% chance of development over the next seven days. The disturbance is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave over the next day or two which could help create conditions conducive to gradual development.
"While development in the short-term is not anticipated as the system moves over portions of the Greater Antilles, environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development as the system moves generally west-northwestward towards the Bahamas and Cuba," the NHC wrote.
Meteorologists often use a variety of computer models like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ("Euro" for short) or the Global Forecast System (GFS, also known as the "American" model). Both are excellent tools used for both daily and long-term tropical forecasting.
In the case of this area of disturbed weather, both computer models have not agreed on what could potentially become of it later this week and into the weekend ahead.
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The European model keeps this system well east of Florida, which would be the best-case scenario for Florida as we would remain on the drier side of the system.
However, the GFS, or American model has been struggling to even generate an organized system, with a few of this model's runs bringing a weak system to our west into the Gulf of Mexico, which could help pump in more moisture over the area.
At this time, it is still too early to say where this disturbance will go, or if it'll even be able to fully form into an organized tropical system. Be sure to stay tuned for the latest updates throughout this week.
The remnants of Hurricane Beryl, which brought a record-breaking start to the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, dissipated as a post-tropical low on July 11.
Tropical Storm Chris dissipated on July 1.
The next name on the list for the 2024 Atlantic season is Debby.