ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — For months, forecasters have been calling for an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reiterated the warning, issuing the highest pre-season outlook in its history.
NOAA forecasters spoke Thursday morning in Washington, D.C., providing details about what is expected this season. As they did, they stressed the importance of making sure people are prepared now.
After seeing record-warm ocean surface temperatures, a high probability of La Niña during peak hurricane season and other factors, forecasters predict the following activity for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:
- 17-25 named storms (average is 14)
- 8-13 hurricanes (average is 7)
- 4-7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) (average is 3)
"Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook," NOAA Administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad said during the agency's announcement.
"The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation," said NOAA's statement, in part.
Forecasters say now is the time to prepare, saying it "only takes one storm to devastate a community."
Currently, one of the strongest El Niños ever seen is nearing its end and NOAA scientists say they believe the transition to La Niña conditions — more favorable for hurricanes to develop and grow — will be quick. La Niña typically helps hurricane development because it usually dampens wind shear in the tropics.
Having low wind shear means it is easier for storms to keep getting stronger.
In addition to La Niña's predictions, "abundant oceanic heat content" in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea stirs up more energy to fuel the development of tropical activity and storms.
Colorado State University hurricane researchers released a similar forecast back in April and also called for an above-average season. The April forecast called for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes — the university's highest-ever outlook.
Floridians can prepare for hurricane season and save money starting on June 1 during the first of two state tax "holidays." People can save on various items by not having to pay sales tax. You can get the list by clicking or tapping here.
You can find more information on protecting yourself during hurricane season in our series "Hurricane Hacks," which you can find here.
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