ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Every year, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) release their initial outlook for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season in early April.
The numbers are now out and it's expected to be a very active season.
On average, the Atlantic hurricane season generates about 14 named storms. From those named storms, seven become hurricanes, with three of those reaching major hurricane status (category 3 or above).
So, what's the forecast for this Atlantic hurricane season? Researchers at CSU say they expect a well above average season.
Their forecast is calling for 23 named storms and 11 hurricanes with five of those becoming major hurricanes.
There's two main reasons for this forecast. The first factor is due to an abnormally warm Atlantic Basin for this time of year. Warm waters act as fuel for tropical development.
The second factor is due to a diminishing El Niño pattern, and a transition toward a La Niña pattern - especially during the second half of the hurricane season in the late Summer and Fall. When La Niña conditions are in place, wind shear is often reduced.
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team at CSU, this combination will cause more storms than normal to form.
"This is the highest prediction for hurricanes that CSU has ever issued with their April outlook," he says.
Every year, several meteorology groups put together a forecast for the upcoming hurricane season. NOAA's hurricane season forecast comes out in mid-to-late May. Colorado State University will issue more forecasts throughout the hurricane season.
But remember, regardless of the forecast, it only takes ONE storm to cause destruction and devastation to property and people. Preparation is key!