ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — When you think of May weather, you might think about tornado outbreaks in the Midwest or the start of our rainy season here in Florida. But recently, it has been a more active time for tropical activity.
No, we aren't talking about major hurricanes or even hurricanes at all. But the recent data has been interesting. Over the last 10 years, we have seen a named tropical system in seven out of those 10 years.
That's in a month that isn't even included in the typical hurricane season!
Get this, we have seen nine named storms over that 10-year period and five of those have made landfall in the United States. Three of those storms made landfall in South Carolina and the other two here in Florida. The good news is that all these systems have been tropical storms or weaker.
In 2012, Tropical Storm Beryl made landfall near Jacksonville, Florida, as the strongest pre-season tropical cyclone to make landfall. More recently, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in the Florida Panhandle back in 2018. That storm still stands as the costliest pre-season tropical cyclone.
When you take a deeper dive into the data from the last several years, an interesting pattern develops. Almost all of the May storms have formed in the second half of the month.
Only one of the 9 storms has developed before the midway point of the month, meaning that more than 88% of the activity from the last 10 years has developed in the last two weeks of the month.
So what will we see this May? With sea surface temperatures running above average and an above-average hurricane season in the forecast, it's not out of the question we could see a storm or two try to develop this May. The most likely area to see a storm develop is off the Carolina coastline with a lower chance extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
If a tropical storm does develop this May in the Atlantic Basin, the first storm would be named Alex.
The key takeaways:
- Tropical activity will be possible as we enter May, normally later in the month.
- Most of the systems tend to be weaker, but even a tropical storm can produce damage.
- It's a good time to prepare for hurricane season. Don't wait last minute, have a plan in place now.
