AccuWeather released its 2022 Atlantic hurricane earlier this week forecasting an above-average hurricane season. Now, just days later, Colorado State is forecasting the same.
In a normal year, the Atlantic hurricane basin produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Colorado state meteorologists are forecasting 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Notice all of those numbers are above-average.
Researchers at Colorado State also gave probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline. They are giving a 71% chance for a major hurricane to make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline. That is higher than the 52% average from the last century.
They break down these probabilities even closer to home. The U.S. east coast, including the Florida Peninsula, is forecast to have a 47% chance of a landfalling major hurricane (category 3 or higher). That is also above the 31% average over the last century.
Colorado State points towards above-average sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and La Niña or neutral conditions continuing into the summer/fall for the driving force behind the above-average forecast.
If their forecast is correct, it would be the seventh straight above-average hurricane season. The first named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season would be Alex.
Stay with 10 Tampa Bay, your hurricane headquarters, for the latest updates as hurricane season approaches!