ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — A tropical disturbance could form during the next few days over the Caribbean Sea as hurricane season continues into its final month.
The National Hurricane Center on Friday highlighted the western portion of the basin, saying that environmental conditions — including very warm sea-surface temperatures — could support some slow development of a low-pressure system. It's from that disturbance that a tropical depression or storm could form.
For now, the chances are low: no development over the next two days, but it increases to a 30-percent chance heading into the next seven days.
Weather computer models, including the American GFS and European, have waivered on what, if anything, forms. Regardless, it's not uncommon to see tropical systems develop in this part of the world during the month of October.
See the map below for typical hurricane origins. If anything tropical in nature pops up, it's usually in the western Caribbean Sea, north to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in the far western Atlantic.
The hurricanes' prevailing tracks then are off to the north and west, usually getting caught up in passing cold fronts that help steer them out to sea.
And here's the map of typical hurricane origins for the month of November. Yes, hurricane season really begins to die down but those that do develop may start in the Caribbean Sea before moving off into the open Atlantic Ocean.
10 Tampa Bay will continue to keep an eye on the Caribbean Sea and elsewhere as hurricane season continues into November. Remember, it's never too late to keep your supplies and plans up-to-date!
