ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The tropics are not done yet. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is becoming better organized and will likely become our next named storm, Sara, by Thursday afternoon.
As of Wednesday evening, showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea are showing better mid-level rotation. At the surface level, things remain broad and disorganized.
Our first forecast track shows Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen developing into Tropical Sara by Thursday afternoon and then from there, it will meander and spin through Central America for a few days due to weaker steering currents.
If timing and placement play out as models currently suggest, an area of high pressure over us in Florida will keep tropical activity further south. By next week, after looping along the coast of Central America, the system will continue on a gradual westward motion approaching Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula where it could approach hurricane strength dependent on its interaction with land and steering currents.
It is too soon to determine if Florida will see this system brush against the west coast as suggested by earlier model runs or what impacts, if any, this system could bring to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This is a good reminder that our hurricane season continues until Nov. 30 and that we still can have landfalling hurricanes here in Florida, even if it's rare.
The hurricane that made landfall latest in the season along Florida's Gulf Coast was Hurricane Kate on Nov. 21, 1985. Sustained winds were near 100 mph in Panama City at landfall.
Two other hurricanes that made November landfalls in Florida include Hurricane Yankee in 1935 and Hurricane Nicole in 2022.
Remember we are still in the 7-10 day range, so we will have changes to the timing, track, and intensity of a potential tropical system. Make sure to keep checking back, and we will continue to keep you informed, prepared and connected.