TAMPA, Fla. — The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30 as that is when we typically see the tropics quiet down.
Recently, the Climate Prediction Center updated their tropical outlook for the week of Oct. 30 to Nov. 5, tagging an area in the Caribbean with a 40% chance of development the first week of November.
This outlook is based on tropical ensemble models suggesting a chance of tropical cyclone development in this region during that time frame.
Typically in November, tropical systems become less common and the prevailing tracks favor a northeast movement of these systems. One of the reasons we see less activity in the tropics this time of year is due to solar energy shifting from the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern Hemisphere as more northerly latitudes begin to cool down.
According to the National Weather Service, on average one to two tropical cyclones occur every other year in November, typically developing in the western Caribbean or west-central Atlantic.
This is also the time of year when we also see strengthening in the polar jet stream which helps send shots of cool air southward (yay Florida cool fronts!), increasing wind shear and disrupting the structure of tropical systems.
We will see increased wind shear the last week of October as an area of high-pressure slides into the Atlantic Ocean, tightening up the pressure gradient across the region and leading to increase northeast to easterly winds.
The ensemble models are currently in strong disagreement on whether we will see a tropical system form the first week of November. Below is a comparison showing how the two models differ.
The GFS model above favors a tropical cyclone spinning out from the Caribbean in late October to early November and tracks it northeast while the EURO below shows a disorganized cluster of rain and storms with little to no structure to work with.
The discrepancies in these models only prove that it's too early to stress and worry about potential scenarios. For now, this is something to watch and monitor but nothing to ring any alarms about. No tropical cyclone is expected to form through the end of October and Florida will continue to have tranquil weather to enjoy the next several days.