ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — There are multiple areas to watch in the tropics this week, but one area is a lot closer to home than the rest. Before you start to worry understand, this system will likely be weak even if it does develop and will primarily just bring higher rain chances across the state late in the week and into the weekend.
A weak disturbance is a few hundred miles south of Bermuda and is moving to the west. The National Hurricane Center is giving this unorganized area a near 0% chance of development over the next 48 hours, but a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days. The trough of low pressure will have the chance to slowly organize later this week before working into the southeast coast by the weekend. Since conditions will not be great overall, the system is expected to be weak.
So a broad trough of low pressure will bring higher rain chances across the state by Thursday into the weekend. It will transport a good amount of tropical moisture with it, which is what will lead to elevated rain chances. Overall, this is not a major threat to Florida or the Southeastern United States and the chances of development will likely stay low.
There are a few other areas to watch. A tropical wave has been moving through the Atlantic towards the Caribbean. At one point this wave had a high chance of development but is now down to only a 10% chance.
Coming off the coast of Africa this week is a wave that models have been trying to develop. The National Hurricane Center has not given this area a chance of development yet, but it will likely happen within the next few days. Where is this system heading? It is way too far out to predict how strong it will be or where it will go, but still it is something to watch in the tropical Atlantic.