ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday afternoon in the Caribbean Sea about 150 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica late Monday night.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands while a hurricane watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.
As far as potential impacts to Florida, a tropical storm watch is in effect for the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and the Dry Tortugas.
A tropical storm watch is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey and Las Tunas.
Here at home, we are expecting local impacts on Wednesday and Thursday as the system moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. We officially have a weather impact alert here at 10 Tampa Bay.
The National Hurricane Center has low confidence of the cyclone track and intensity once it emerges in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. So, make sure to keep monitoring this system with us.
The good news is right now, most of our models are in good agreement of low impacts here at home. Rafael is expected to move away from Florida at least 300 miles west of Tampa and slowly weaken in a high wind shear environment by the end of the week.
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