ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Hurricane Rafael is now a Category 2 storm as it continues to make its way through the Caribbean Sea toward the Gulf of Mexico. On its path is Cuba, which is expected to be impacted by hurricane conditions on Wednesday.
Rafael came on the scene Monday as a tropical storm. By Tuesday evening, the storm had strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane. Forecasters say Hurricane Rafael could rapidly intensify to or near a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, before making landfall.
Hurricane Rafael is expected to make landfall over western Cuba later Wednesday and move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila, the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and the Dry Tortugas.
10 Tampa Bay is keeping a close eye on potential impacts for Florida and the Tampa Bay area. Hurricane Rafael is not expected to have a direct impact on Florida.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.
Here at home, we are expecting local impacts on Wednesday and Thursday as the system moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center has low confidence in the cyclone's track and intensity once it emerges in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. So, make sure to keep monitoring this system with us.
The good news is that most of our models are in agreement with low impacts here at home right now. Rafael is expected to move away from Florida at least 300 miles west of Tampa and slowly weaken in a high wind shear environment by the end of the week.
Impacts begin late Wednesday into Thursday in the form of additional rain chances, gusty winds at times, hazardous marine conditions, and an isolated tornado threat.
For more weather updates and information, download the free 10 Tampa Bay app to your device.
10 Tampa Bay meteorologists on Facebook: Bobby Deskins, Amanda Pappas, Mike Prangley, Colleen Campbell
10 Tampa Bay meteorologists on X: Bobby Deskins, Amanda Pappas, Mike Prangley, Colleen Campbell