ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a 40 percent chance for development over the Gulf of Mexico with rainfall impacts expected for the Tampa Bay region.
As people up and down the Gulf coast continue recovering from Hurricanes Debby and Helene, they'll need to monitor the wet weather forecast in the coming days.
When
There are two areas of low pressure that will impact our weather starting on Sunday. The first area of low pressure will just increase rain chances on Sunday. Then, from Tuesday through Wednesday, either a second area of low pressure will move into the Gulf or it will fuse with the first. That's why we're seeing increased chances of formation from the NHC.
Impact
The first area of low pressure in the Gulf is forecast to track to the north and east, impacting Florida. It could form farther north of Tampa Bay, which would mean more impacts for us. If it tracks further south of us, more impacts will be felt in Southwest Florida.
In all, we could potentially see three to six inches of rain. That would bring serious flooding concerns, with numerous communities still dealing with impacts from Hurricanes Debby and Helene.
For now, we are not expecting a strong system like Helene. However, we can't rule anything out — from a rainmaker to a tropical depression or even a tropical storm. At this point in the hurricane season, the ingredients are right, and we can't let our guard down.
With that being said, it's too early for specifics on track, timing or intensity. The models could continue to flip-flop, or continue to show the same trend. Meteorologists look for consistency across models, not just one run.
Need
Stay weather aware and have a way to get weather alerts. For communities impacted by flooding during Hurricanes Helene and Debby, you may want to take steps to protect property.
10 Tampa Bay will keep you informed, prepared and connected every step of the way, offering no hype and just the forecast facts.
For more weather updates and information, download the free 10 Tampa Bay app to your device.
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