ST. PETERSBURG, Fla — As expected, the tropics have been very quiet over the last week. However, indications show the first couple of weeks of October are going to see resumed activity. Colorado State University predicts the next couple of weeks will bring ‘above average’ tropical activity.
You can likely thank a suppressive phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and a Kelvin Wave for the quiet period to end September. These are large-scale atmospheric conditions that can have a large influence on cyclone development.
This happened in early August as well. Essentially, these bring enhanced or suppressive phases to tropical activity. A suppressive phase is in the process of becoming an enhancing phase. Storms can form in either but are more likely during enhancing phases.
While there are currently no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring an area of low pressure that is forecast to develop in the western Caribbean and has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next few days.
Global models have varying solutions as to how intense this cyclone will get. The global models also highlight additional potential tropical cyclone formation in the western Caribbean and even possibly in the eastern Atlantic in the next two weeks.
Both the GFS and ECMWF forecast models have some support for development of the system in the western Caribbean, although inconsistently. They also both show that there is the potential for additional storm formation in the western Caribbean as well as potentially in the eastern tropical Atlantic in the next two weeks.
While the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season has passed, a second peak usually occurs in October. It's also an important part of the hurricane season for the west coast of Florida, as storms are more likely to develop in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico this time of the year.
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