ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Strong to severe thunderstorms, including the threat of tornadoes, are possible Tuesday as Tampa Bay's roller coaster weather pattern continues.
A cold front associated with a strengthing low-pressure system is expected to sweep through the area. At this point, the time frame of most concern will be during the afternoon and evening hours.
On land and sea, there are multiple threats: strong to severe storms with damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, large hail, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding and high surf. The area's Gulf beaches have suffered significant beach erosion from many storms, namely since Hurricane Idalia, and additional damage is possible due to the potential for a small surge.
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Let's break down the threats and timing:
Storm Prediction Center forecasters have highlighted the immediate Tampa Bay area under a slight risk of a threat of severe weather. That's a level two out of five, meaning that scattered severe storms are possible.
A greater risk of severe weather exists across parts of Citrus and Hernando counties, where the area is highlighted under an enhanced risk — a level three out of five. Numerous severe storms are possible there.
The primary threats continue to be damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and large hail.
Those storms are expected to roll in from the Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon and evening hours.
Areas of coastal flooding are possible roughly from Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. A gale watch begins Monday night, and a coastal flood watch has been issued for Tuesday.
- Citrus County northward: 2-4 feet
- Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota and Tampa Bay: 2-3 feet
- South of Sarasota County: 1-2 feet
Before that, the Gulf will start to look angry, with waves building 6-8 feet. This high surf, combined with relentless wave action, could lead to some beach erosion.
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