TAMPA, Fla — Hurricanes may still be Florida's biggest threat, but due to our changing climate, wildfires are growing in frequency. Over the last several decades, extreme droughts and increasing temperatures are leading to longer wildfire seasons.
This may come as a shocker, but The New York Times found the state with the most properties facing at least a 1 percent wildfire risk is one that's known for its tropical downpours and high humidity: The Sunshine State.
This data released by the non-profit research group First Street Foundation comes at a time when more people are moving into states like Florida to escape the high costs of city living. While flood risk is calculated at the government level, wildfires, which are increasing in frequency, are not.
The First Street Foundation's wildfire model properly named "Fire Factor" uses publicly available data to estimate wildfire risk on a property-by-property basis up to 30 years into the future.
This tool is accessible to everyone — all it needs is a ZIP code.
According to First Street, 3,928,100 properties in Florida have at least a .03% likelihood of being in a wildfire this year and a 1% likelihood over the course of 30 years. That number represents 43.8% of all properties in the state.
Digging even deeper, 1,059,600 properties have at least a 6% risk over 30 years, which is 11.8% of all Florida properties.
Getting hyperlocal, three Tampa Bay counties top the list of having the greatest number of properties at risk this year. Polk County ranks No. 1 with having the highest percentage of properties with at least a .03% risk this year with 335,100 properties. Next on the list is Pasco County with 210,500. Third is highly populated Hillsborough County with 198,200 properties at risk.
Wondering what's with the increased fire risk? Climate change. Temperatures are increasing, humidity patterns are shifting, droughts are persisting, and thick Florida vegetation like palmetto and pine trees act as fuel for fires during the dry season where we can go weeks without sufficient rain.
Roughly 800 wildfires that grew larger than 500 acres have been recorded in the state between 1984 and 2020. First Street claims that more than 4 million cumulative acres burned across the state over that 36-year period.
According to the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, so far in 2022, 1,637 wildfires have been reported, and approximately 124,710 acres have burned.