A La Niña climate pattern has developed and is likely to persist through the winter.
So, what does that mean for Tampa Bay?
La Niña is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. It’s the opposite of El Niño, which features warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in that region.
La Niña can contribute to an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity by weakening the wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Basin, which enables storms to develop and intensify. 2020 is on pace to be the most active hurricane season on record.
Now, as we look ahead toward the end of hurricane season and winter, an advisory issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there is an 85-percent chance that La Niña will be in place from December 2020 through February 2021. During strong La Niña winters, the jet stream will typically shift north and calmer, dryer air to sit in the South during the winter.
This means Florida winters during strong La Niña events tend to be drier and warmer than average.
Rainfall amounts could be half as much as normal between through the winter. Temperatures could average 2 to 4 degrees warmer.
It doesn’t mean Tampa Bay won’t get some occasional cold snaps. Cold fronts will still make their way south with some bite occasionally, but those events are usually less frequent during a strong La Niña winter.
Long periods of dry air can be bad for those who suffer from allergies, as rain will often wash airborne pollens out of the air, bringing some relief. The dry pattern would also bring an increased fire danger in the spring, which is already a dry time of year anyway.
Lightning and dry vegetation are already a dangerous combination in Florida in regard to wildfires.
The Climate Prediction Center also says there’s a 65-percent chance that a La Niña continues into the spring, which would likely keep the warm and dry weather going.
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