TAMPA, Fla. — We are now 78 days into hurricane season — and still no hurricanes! While I'm sure none of us are complaining, you might be wondering, just how common is this slow start?
The only area we are tracking is a weak system, that only has a 30% chance of development, moving near the coast of Mexico. So no hurricanes are expected for the next several days.
I did some digging and looked back at the last 30 years of hurricane seasons since 1992. When you look at when the first hurricane formed, an interesting pattern develops.
Over the last 30 years, there have been two peak times of the year that the first hurricane develops: the first half of July or the second half of August. In fact, 20 out of the 30 years had the first hurricane develop in those time windows!
Only three of the last 30 years had the first hurricane of the season forming after Sept. 1. And this year has the chance to do it, with most models showing development in the last few days of August into early September.
This has been a big change from the last four years, from 2018-2021 the first hurricane of the season formed ahead of schedule in July. Its been since 2013 that the first hurricane developed this late in the year.
Will our first hurricane wait until September?
It is possible! But, models are hinting at better conditions for tropical development and more activity in the last few days of August into the beginning of September.
If we do make it to September, it will be the fourth year since 1992 that we saw our first hurricane develop that late in the season. You might be wondering, then, how active did those seasons end up being?
The three years, since 1992, with the first hurricane forming in September are 2001, 2002 and 2013.
The year 2013 was a very weak season with only two hurricanes, both only reaching a Category 1 strength. There were 11 other tropical storms, but the lack of strong storms puts the 2013 hurricane season in the top 10 least intense seasons since 1965.
So if a hurricane waits until September to form this year, will it be a very quiet season?
Not so fast! 2001 was another year that waited for its first hurricane to develop in September and that season had a lot more activity.
In 2001, there were 15 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes classifying the season as above average. Two of those major hurricanes made landfall: Iris as a Category 4 in Belize and Michelle as a Category 4 storm in Cuba.
Those two storms combined for close to $2.7 billion in damage and took the lives of 84 people. And they didn't form until October and November!
The big takeaway:
Yes, it has been great to have a slow start to the hurricane season with the end of the month marking the halfway point. But, it only takes one storm! And the data shows that a slow start does not mean a slow season overall!
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