Meteorologists at Colorado State University have upped the numbers in a June update of their Atlantic hurricane season forecast Thursday.
CSU researchers are unwavering in their prediction for another "very active" hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. In a normal year, the Atlantic hurricane basin produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
In a June update, their numbers have increased compared to April. Colorado State meteorologists are now forecasting 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
Researchers at Colorado State also gave probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline. They are giving a 76% chance for a major hurricane to make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline. That is higher than the 52% average from the last century.
They break down these probabilities even closer to home. The U.S. east coast, including the Florida Peninsula, is forecast to have a 51% chance of a landfalling major hurricane (category 3 or higher). That is also above the 31% average over the last century.
Colorado State points towards above-average sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and La Niña, or neutral conditions continuing into the summer/fall, for the driving force behind the above-average forecast.
If their forecast is correct, it would be the seventh straight above-average hurricane season. The first named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season would be Alex.
