TAMPA, Fla. — Weather is such a big element in NFL football games that it’s even factored into betting lines in Vegas. Perfect weather typically means more scoring. Higher scoring games can favor higher-scoring teams.
For the record, our Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the second (behind the Green Bay Packers) highest-scoring team in the NFL in 2020, with 30.7 points per game (PPG). Kansas City was number five, with 29.6 PPG. Both are high-scoring teams.
Here is how weather affects the game:
Of course, indoor games are the highest-scoring games, because the weather is not a factor. In a study done by Pinnacle.com on scoring in the NFL from 2003 to 2015, they found that the total points per game scored in outdoor venues was 42.4.
Alternatively, in games played in a dome stadium (or one with a retractable roof), teams combined for 46.2 PPG.
Buccaneers’ head coach Bruce Arians says wind is the biggest weather concern. Excessive wind speeds can be a considerable hindrance to both the passing and kicking game, affecting the accuracy of both. Wind will change a game more than snow or rain.
In the graphic above, you can see the average points per game for outdoor games played in the NFL lowers as the strength of the wind increases.
It really begins to show a definite and accelerated downward trend at speeds of 20 mph and above.
The most extreme wind conditions for Pinnacle.com’s ten-year data came in Week 17 at the Buffalo Bills’ Ralph Wilson Stadium for the visit of the New England Patriots in 2008. Although not the only factor conducive to a low scoring game on the night, the average wind speed was 32 mph, gusting to 55 mph.
The two teams were perhaps the most accustomed to windy weather (they have the highest and second-highest average wind speed for home games -- the Bills with 16.1 mph and the Patriots with 14.5 mph) but the game yielded just 13 points in total.
What about rain?
The playing surface will be slower if a game is played in wet conditions. When the field gets a bit sloppy, the game becomes a battle of attrition often with grinding running plays up the middle.
It is also hard for the quarterback to throw a tight spiral in wet conditions, as it is harder to get a good grip on the ball.
Cold is the other big weather factor. If the weather is cold, the kicking game will be affected. With every kick, the kicker will lose distance on their kicks.
Snow can affect a game like rain. However, SportsBettingStats.com says snow doesn’t affect many games each season with today’s synthetic fields, as there are advanced heating systems on fields to make the field playable. It is a fact that snow only has an effect on less than 1 percent of both NFL and NCAA football games.
What weather will Tom Brady and the Buccaneers be facing on Sunday? Pretty good weather.
Temperatures will be comfortable in the 60s to start the game. Wind will likely be less than 10 mph. A little rain can’t be ruled out but most of the game is likely dry.
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