TAMPA, Fla. — "Winter" in Florida will be here soon — that means we can start to look at general patterns for what we can expect. This is not a forecast for every day but an idea of how far off from average we will be for the entire winter.
One of the biggest factors will be El Niño. We have talked about El Niño's impacts on hurricane season, but it will also impact our patterns for winter. El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and level out this winter.
In a typical El Niño winter, the subtropical jet tends to bring a wetter pattern to the Deep South and Southeast. Temperatures also normally trend a bit cooler across the south in an El Niño period.
Is that what we can expect this winter? Pretty much!
A very typical El Niño winter pattern is expected, according to the Climate Prediction Center. A drier pattern will be the trend for the northern third of the country, which tends to mean less snow for northern states. A wetter pattern for the southern third of the county is expected, including Florida. That could bring more storms and higher severe storm chances this winter.
In terms of temperatures, near-normal temperatures are expected across Florida and the southern United States. If you head farther north, the chances of above-average temperatures increase.
So overall, the Tampa Bay area can expect near-normal temperatures. But above-average rainfall is likely with the outlook giving a 50-60 percent chance of more rainfall than normal. This is good news since we are coming close to the end of the rainy season with over a foot of rainfall below average for the year.
Some catch-up this winter would be good to help limit the wildfire risk in early spring.