ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The meteorological start of fall on Sept. 1 is only two weeks away. The "-ber" months are almost here and that means more comfortable temperatures will eventually arrive in Florida.
The Climate Prediction Center just released its fall forecast for the U.S. This is based on general weather patterns and trends that we could expect heading into the next couple of months – one of those factors also includes El Niño.
The general pattern for El Niño is above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for the northern states, with below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation across the southern third of the county.
Overall, the forecast calls for above-normal temperatures and rainfall for the three months of September, October and November.
According to the latest forecast, the Tampa Bay area has a 42 percent chance for above normal temperatures and only a 25 percent chance for below-normal temperatures this fall.
In terms of rainfall, the signals are weaker but still favor slightly towards above normal rainfall. The odds of above normal rainfall are 37 percent and 30 percent for below-normal. The other 33 percent is for near-normal rainfall.
Hopefully, we can get above-average rainfall to help with the drought conditions along the coast. Tampa still needs nearly a foot of rainfall to get close to the average for the year.
After a hot summer, it looks like fall could bring more heat with above-average temperatures.
Our average high in early September is still in the low 90s but it drops to the mid 70s by the end of November!
