ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — As Florida and the Tampa Bay area continue to recover from hurricanes Helene and Milton, many eyes are still on the tropics. There's already talk about the possibility of a new named system brewing, but we're getting ahead of ourselves.
Yes, the tropics remain busy. Yes, there is a low chance for a system to develop. But here's the good news — there's no immediate threat to Florida.
Big changes are happening in the Northern Hemisphere with more of a fall-like pattern in the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere. This pattern is thanks to big ridges of high pressure developing in part because of less daylight, ushering in cooler air and quieter weather.
This weather pattern typically helps suppress tropical activity much farther south because the drier, cooler air pushes the warmer air and moisture away. More good news — this pattern is set to stick around for at least the next couple of weeks.
It should help block tropical activity that develops from coming to Florida in the way we saw Debby, Helene and Milton impact the region.
You'll notice a tropical disturbance in the 7-10 day period moving away from our area instead of toward us thanks to high pressure and a couple of cold fronts. This shift in the upper-level winds keeps us in a much lower risk area for any immediate concerns from tropical cyclones.
Rainfall over the next couple of weeks tells the story. Where you see the heavy rain would be the areas with a much higher risk of tropical activity. The main impact zone will shift to the Caribbean and south into Central America.
We will keep a close eye on things as always but it appears to be a much quieter pattern here at home. Some areas here at home may not see a drop of rain with our coolest weather since May on the way. Sweater weather and tropical weather do not mix. Lows even in Tampa falling to the 50s by Thursday morning.
We will continue to keep you informed, prepared and connected now and through the end of hurricane season.
