ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — We are entering what many consider the best time of year in Florida! Late winter and early spring can bring beautiful weather, which is why so many visitors flock to our state.
And Florida will not disappoint over the next few weeks! A dry and warm weather pattern will set up shop for the rest of February into the being of March. While this will be great for tourists, it will come at a price.
The lack of rainfall over the coming weeks will give us a high chance for drought development. In fact, the Climate Prediction Center puts out seasonal outlooks for areas to see drought improvement and areas that could see drought development.
Below is the seasonal outlook from now through the end of May. Areas in green will see drought improvement or removal. In brown, drought conditions are likely to continue and yellow areas are expected to see drought development.
You can see that most of Florida is expected to see drought conditions develop. Some good news is that parts of the West and Northern Plains will see a wetter pattern improving the drought in those areas.
Why is Florida expected to be so dry?
It all has to do with the upper-level pattern this time of year since we are not in the rainy season yet. Since we don't get pop-up afternoon storms this time of year, we rely on low pressures and fronts to bring rain chances.
Over the next few weeks, low pressures are expected to hit the West Coast but then turn towards the Northeast. Even cold fronts will struggle to make it this far south. That keeps the highest rain chances farther north as a series of high pressures keeps us dry and warm.
The map above shows a general overview of the pattern across the county and how it impacts us around Tampa Bay. The Climate Prediction Center agrees with this, too.
In the 8-14 day outlook for the end of February into the beginning of March, there is a very high chance of the Tampa Bay area seeing above-average temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions.
Overall, expect some great beach weather, with not many rainy days. Highs will likely run several degrees above average with more 80s likely over the coming weeks (our average is still in the mid-70s).
With the dry weather, a higher risk for drought and wildfires will be possible. Be careful with any fires, burns and cigarette butts.