ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — It has been a dry start to 2023! Since the New Year, Tampa has only received right around 2 inches of rainfall, which puts us close to 3 inches below average for the year.
While you might be enjoying the nice pool and beach days, this warm and dry stretch of weather comes at a cost. With drought conditions starting to develop, there is an increased risk of wildfires.
You might think about California and the West Coast when it comes to wildfires. But Florida has its own wildfire season from late winter into spring before the rainy season begins.
Just this week, the U.S. Drought Monitor increased west-central Florida to a D0. This means we are experiencing abnormally dry conditions and it is the lowest level category for drought rankings.
That may not sound like a big deal but with little to no rain in the forecast, we are expecting it to increase to a moderate drought and potentially a severe drought if conditions persist.
Below is the European model rainfall forecast for the next week. The areas in green are expected to get less than a half inch, while areas in blue to the north could see close to an inch. Notice most of Tampa and areas south are free of any color, meaning that little to no rainfall is expected over the next seven days.
The highest rain chances across our area will be the Nature Coast and north.
The long-term forecast doesn't look great either with below-average rainfall forecasted by the Climate Prediction Center through March. Most of the Gulf Coast states can expect drier than normal weather with northern states experiencing the opposite.
The big takeaway is to be smart about anything that could cause a wildfire. Don't throw cigarette buds out the window. Don't leave fires until they are completely out. Listen to local burn bans and other restrictions: they are in place for a reason.