ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — As Florida is battling the heat, many may be looking to the winter months for hope of relief. Winter was unusually warm last year, but it looks like it may be a return to normal, according to an extended forecast outlook from the Farmers' Almanac.
Weather, of course, is hard to predict, but patterns tend to show up, giving forecasters and meteorologists key insight into what likely will happen.
A key factor in this winter's forecast depends on how El Niño develops over the next few months.
"If we consider that alongside our tried-and-true forecast formula, it means that cold temperatures should prevail throughout the country and bring snow, sleet, and ice," the Almanac said.
"The Southeast and Florida will see a wetter-than-normal winter, with average winter temperatures overall, but a few frosts may send many shivers to snowbirds trying to avoid the cold and snow back home," it continued.
10 Tampa Bay meteorologist Tyler Moore, however, questions the almanac's methodology.
"Take whatever the Farmers' Almanac says with a very big grain of salt," he said. "Yes it is true, El Niño typically brings a wetter and cooler winter to Florida. But the Almanac is very vague and inaccurate with their forecasts."
The almanac claims that the predictions are close to 80 percent accurate. But in 2012, a study done at the University of Illinois found a lot lower accuracy, only near 52 percent.
"The almanac says they use a secret formula, but many in the scientific community question how much of it is science versus random guessing," Tyler notes.
Overall, predictions are fun to look at, especially when thinking about cooler temperatures this time of year. But stick with real meteorologists for forecasts and save all the guessing for March Madness.