It’s November. A new month, and it’s already a little cooler like someone flipped a switch. Is this a coincidence, or is something happening with our weather pattern? It’s a little of both. So let’s dive into why our weather is changing and why it might not change that much.
Three reasons why our weather is about to change:
1. The days are getting shorter. Less sunshine means less daytime heating. Nov. 1 has 11 hours and 5 minutes of daylight. By the end of the month, there will be 10 hours and 31 minutes. The sun heats the surface of the earth, which in turn heats the air. Simply put, if the sun is out longer, the earth's surface via sunlight absorption will be able to warm the air more than when the sun is out for a shorter time period. This alone will start to mean cooler temperatures.
2. The sun angle is getting lower. The fall and winter sun is lower on the horizon than the summer sun. When the sun is low on the horizon, the energy coming from the sun will be spread over a larger area. Also, lower sun angles have to travel a much farther distance through the atmosphere before reaching the surface, increasing the amount of energy that does not reach the surface.
3. Cold northerly air masses start to come our way. The days are even shorter, and the sun angle is even lower in the northern areas. This allows very cold air masses to develop that try to move into Florida. The air of cold air masses is denser than warmer air masses, and as the jet stream pattern changes, they occasionally make it into Florida -- cooling us down. In the winter, we sometimes even get truly cold. When this happens, our lower sun angle and shorter days make it more difficult to modify the air temperatures to the warm air we're used to experiencing. Of course, the real cold air never lasts long here, as we typically see a nice warm-up within a few days.
3 reasons why it probably won’t change that much:
1. We’re expected to be above normal. We likely just finished the hottest October in Tampa weather history. We’ll have to see how November develops, but the Climate Prediction Center forecast Florida to have above-normal temperatures for the month. What’s normal? Highs in the low 80s to start the month, with highs in the mid-70s by the end of the month. After normal weather to start November, we already expect above-normal weather with the mid-80s for highs much of next week.
2. Global warming. It’s a hot button topic, politically, and maybe it's tough to identify one single reason for our climate change, but it’s hard to deny the warm records and extreme weather we continue to see. Already, winter in Florida is forecast to be warmer than average for December, January and February.
3. We live in beautiful Florida. While we usually cool down during November, it’s not extreme for us. We do see less rain in November, In fact, November is the driest month of the year for Tampa. The average is just 1.62 inches. The wettest is August, averaging 7.60 inches. In the end, we see lots of sunshine and very warm days, at least pushing 80 degrees more often than not.
Happy November! Thanksgiving is just 3 weeks and 5 days from today. That kinds makes you a little chilly “inside” anyway, doesn’t it?
