ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — For back to back to back years, La Niña is forecast for the winter months! Earlier in the year, it looked like La Niña would start to weaken toward winter and enter more of a neutral phase.
That will no longer be the case as the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting a 75% chance of La Niña this winter before turning neutral in the spring months.
Why does this matter?
What phase we are in — La Niña, El Niño or neutral — has a big impact on the weather patterns the United States experiences. Not only is this the case during hurricane season but also in winter.
A typical La Niña winter keeps an active jet stream across the northern United States, favoring cooler and wetter weather from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast.
Think about the jet stream as the dividing line between mild air to the south and polar air to the north. The jet stream also acts like train tracks for low-pressure systems, so you can see why a northern jet stream would keep wetter and colder conditions north.
On the other hand across the Southwest and Gulf Coast, warmer and drier weather is typical.
What can Florida Expect this winter?
The current forecast predicts exactly what you would expect in a La Niña winter. It brings below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures. This could bring similar weather as last winter.
Last winter was La Niña, and we experienced above-average temperatures for most of December and February. Late January did bring some colder weather last winter, but the month still ended near average. So all combined, last winter was statistically warmer than normal.
Last winter was also very dry — December through February normally averages 7.83 inches of rainfall over the three months. Last winter, we only saw 2.67 inches over that same time period.
It is important to remember that this forecast is for an average across three months. That means we will likely see drier and warmer stretches overall, but cold snaps and wet periods will still be possible.
Another three-month forecast for December, January and February will be updated by the CPC on Nov. 17.
