TAMPA, Fla. — It was a tough week for Tampa Bay Lightning fans coming to terms with the fact Steven Stamkos will wear another sweater.
The most common question I hear from fans, and even other media members, is why?
Why would you part with your captain? A man who has spent 16 years in town and just logged 81 points. A pillar in the community. Arguably your best player in the last playoff series. A man, who despite his age, has only missed a combined five games in the last three seasons.
Why?
If we view the question from an emotional lens, there will never be a good answer, but that’s not how Bolts general manager Julien BriseBois does business.
“Ultimately, I felt and made the decision that if I agree to the terms he wanted in order to get a deal done, I would not be putting ourselves in the best position to chase championships going forward.”
The ‘why’ we seek was handled logically and historically.
Let’s talk about what BriseBois has done this offseason.
According to Evolving-Hockey, an NHL analytical website, after the flurry of moves the Bolts are projected to earn 95 points. That’s up one point from last year’s projections at 94 with guys like Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev.
I want to present this because what BriseBois said in his press conference is often looked at from a short-term lens.
Jake Guentzel and Ryan McDonagh cost $15.75 million. Stammer and Sergy cost $16.5 million. Considering Stamkos would have taken a discount, that duo might have been cheaper.
So, in the short term, did acquiring Guentzel and McDonagh drastically change the outlook for next season versus the guys they already had? Good question.
However, I don’t think the moves from BriseBois should be judged next year. We’re looking at a three-year window considering Nikita Kucherov is a free agent in 2027.
By flipping McDonagh for Sergy, you fill a short-term need while opening up cap space in two years. By flipping Guentzel for Stamkos, you turn the clock back five years on a man who has logged 10 fewer goals than Stamkos these past three seasons.
In the next three years, the entire Top 6 is locked into deals. Once J.J. Moser inks a contract (arbitration coming in a few weeks), three of your top-four defensemen are locked into deals, as well. That's on top of Andrei Vasilevskiy in the net. The salary cap will continue to creep up, but the cost of your best players will be stagnant for a while. Tampa Bay will not only have more money to play with, but prospects like Conor Geekie and Isaac Howard might be ready to join the group. BriseBois will also have an entire arsenal of picks, besides a 2027 fifth-rounder.
So that’s the logical.
Here’s the historical.
The Capitals gave Alexander Ovechkin a huge contract in 2021. They have yet to win a playoff series, and he started showing diminishing returns at age 37.
Look at the Penguins. Since winning back-to-back cups they’ve earned one playoff series win. They’re stuck in no man’s land with Sidney Crosby entering free agency next year.
The Blackhawks beat the Bolts in 2015, paid Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, and never saw another playoff series win. They proceeded to tear down the entire operation.
While many general managers try to squeeze whatever is possible out of champions – whether a player or group of players – at an older age, BriseBois is going down the harder road. He is trying to do a significant re-tool on the fly and for that, he’s taking a huge risk. Not only did the fans want Steven Stamkos, but I even heard stuff like this percolating from some National media members.
So when I hear the question ‘ Why?’ Why did the lightning do this?’ I’m continuously bombarded with emotional responses, and I understand that. I did a commentary a couple of months ago and said Steven Stamkos should be a Bolt for life. I’m not above the emotions or think anyone is wrong for being emotional or thinking this decision should have been handled emotionally.
But there is a method to the madness.
Agree or disagree.
And while that method better produce results, because BriseBois has certainly thrust himself into a precarious position, all I can think about is three years ago to the day when the Tampa Bay Lightning were parading that Stanley Cup around inside AMALIE Arena in front of the hometown fans.
If you want to know the why for everything, that is the why. That moment right there.
BriseBois is the driver. He’s got the directions. Nobody else can touch them. The only thing fans can do at this point is sit in the backseat and hope he gets everyone to the final destination because right now, a lot of people are feeling a little bit lost.