TAMPA, Fla. — A new and younger Tampa Bay Buccaneers team is ready to sail the ship for the 2023-24 NFL season.
After going through an offseason with plenty of questions, the Bucs managed to keep plenty of free agents that make up the core of the defense but also lost important players.
One key addition that has been under the microscope throughout training camp is that of Baker Mayfield – who officially won the starting quarterback last month.
The 2018 No. 1 overall draft pick will operate under new offensive coordinator Dave Canales' system, who is calling plays for the first time in his professional career.
Luckily for Mayfield, he is not short of offensive weapons. Wide receivers Mike Evans – who is currently in a contract standoff with the franchise – and Chris Godwin are once again expected to take most of the workload in the passing game, but the impressive Trey Palmer and second-year tight end Cade Otton are ones to watch to assist with making big plays.
On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay's defense is shaping up to once again be one of the best in the league.
First-round pick Calijah Kancey should be ready to go for the first game of the season and line up alongside Vita Vea as nose tackles, linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White will hope to continue their dominant partnership and the starting secondary looks good enough to compete with some of the league's best offenses.
On paper, the Bucs look like a team in contention to once again compete for the NFC South title, even with Tom Brady no longer in the fold. Plus, the division is regarded as one of the weakest across the NFL.
But the game is played on the field.
10 Tampa Bay's Leo Santos and David Schiele break down the questions surrounding this new-looked Bucs side that will determine if the team has a successful season or not.
First things first, what are we expecting from Mayfield and how can he succeed with his new team?
Santos: This is Baker's fourth team in the last two years. On the surface, that's not a good sign for a team, in the words of general manager Jason Licht, is "reloading, not rebuilding." However, he has looked like a different player in the offseason. He's locked into what Canales is selling him, appears confident in the pocket and has been building chemistry with his receivers.
Plus, the number of turnovers in training camp is misleading. To me, it shows Baker is testing which of his receivers are capable of winning a 50/50 ball and proving he's willing to take shots down the field. In the two preseason games he has played in, he did not turn the ball over once – a promising sign for Bucs fans. In total, he recorded 106 passing yards and two touchdown passes from 14 completions.
Long story short – if Baker continues to avoid turning the ball over, connect with his receivers, scramble when necessary and take risks down the field, it'll be a successful season for him. Unfortunately, the first thing on that list has haunted his career thus far, and backup quarterback Kyle Trask will eagerly be waiting for his number to be called.
Schiele: My expectations are modest for Baker Mayfield. I don't want to say that he will fail, however, I am not confident that he will be the 2020 version of himself. That year, he passed for 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions, leading the Browns to an 11-5 record.
The NFL is a "what have you done for me lately" league. Lately, the former Heisman trophy winner has been a loser. I don't believe quarterback wins are a real stat, but the Rams and Panthers went a combined 2-8 with Mayfield in 2022. His passing success rate also dipped to career lows.
When people wonder why Baker is the preseason favorite to be the first quarterback benched this season, his recent history is why.
With contract issues still needing to be sorted out, how will that impact Mike Evans' season?
Santos: Mike Evans is probably the most selfless, humble player in the NFL, and the Bucs are very lucky to have kept such a player for so long. I still think he'll be locked in and do whatever he can to give his team a fighting chance of holding on to the division title.
There's also no doubt he will get another 1,000-yard season, and if this is his last season in Tampa Bay, he'll want to be regarded as going out on the top more so than just being here because he has to. I will say, however, that Godwin will be Baker's "No. 1 guy" this season. Their connection in training camp and in the preseason game against Baltimore did not go unnoticed. But like I said, Mike is going to do his thing, no worries on my end. If he can do it with quarterbacks such as Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mike Glennon, he should do the same with Baker throwing him the ball.
Schiele: Mike Evans and his agent have made it abundantly clear that the Pro Bowl wideout will focus on helping the Buccaneers win, whether or not he has a new deal. Evans is a professional and has never let outside noise distract him from being a productive player on the field. Nine consecutive 1,000-yard seasons do not happen by accident. It takes a certain level of focus and discipline. Evans excels at both.
If Evans finishes with less than 1,000 receiving yards, it will be due to poor quarterback play and, possibly, a decline in his ability because he is now 30 years old. The contract issue will be a non-factor.
With most core defensive pieces returning, which area of that unit looks most concerning?
Santos: It's got to be the secondary. With the losses of cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting and safeties Mike Edwards, Keanu Neal and Logan Ryan, the Bucs are short on depth in the backfield.
Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Ryan Neal are solid starters, but behind them, there's a drop in players capable of being able to defend against elite offenses. Second-year cornerback Zyon McCollum still looks like he's not ready to be a reliable option, and the team will rely on undrafted free agent Christian Izien as the starter in the nickleback position. If the starters can stay healthy throughout most of the season, there's no reason the Bucs shouldn't record a high number of turnovers. If not, it's going to feel like a long season for this secondary unit.
Schiele: I agree with Leo that defensive back— more specifically cornerback —depth is a concern for Tampa Bay's defense. Outside of that unit, I will keep a close eye on the edge rushers this season. I'm not sure if this is a concern, as much as it is intriguing. Shaq Barrett is coming off a major injury. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka remains relatively unproven, although, he finished tied for third on the team with four sacks last year. Anthony Nelson led this position group with a career-high 5.5 sacks in 2022. The team also added Yaya Diaby in this year's draft. This group is certainly one to watch this season.
The Bucs have 13 rookies in their 53-man roster with most of them being undrafted free agents. Which undrafted guy gets you most excited about?
Santos: I'm keeping a close eye on wide receiver Rakim Jarrett. He previously said Philadelphia wanted to pick him in the 2023 draft but opted to remain unchosen to sign with the Bucs as it gave him a better chance to make the final roster. He did exactly that.
But with a wide receiver room containing Evans, Godwin, Russell Gage – before his injury, rookie Trey Palmer and Deven Thompkins, it was not an easy route for Jarrett. He beat out David Moore for that final wide receiver spot and looked impressive in preseason. He may not get fed the ball a lot, but he's on the team for a reason, and I expect him to make the most out of his opportunities this year.
Schiele: Sean Tucker is the obvious choice here. He is listed as the number two running back on the roster, meaning he should get a handful of carries on Sundays. None of the 32 teams were willing to draft Tucker because of a previously undiagnosed heart condition that prevented him from participating in any NFL Combine drills.
“It was hard at first, just hearing everything,” he said. "When I got the news … it came as a surprise. Hearing that, like the day before like my position group has the combine drills – it was definitely hard.”
Tucker finished the preseason with 81 rushing yards, averaging 3.52 per carry. Just like Rachaad White last year, Tucker could win over some fans this season.
What will it take for head coach Todd Bowles to be on the hot seat?
Santos: The Bucs have a tough first five games of the season, including a primetime matchup against last year's Super Bowl finalist the Philadelphia Eagles. If Bowles were to lose all five games, he'd for sure be on the hot seat. However, the Glazers are not known for firing Bucs head coaches during the season, so that may give him some wiggle room. If things don't seem to be functioning on either end of the ball, Bowles will feel the pressure and a potential firing might be in the works as well.
Schiele: If the Bucs come out flat, the seat will definitely warm up. There may be some grace from upper management for losing to the Vikings, Bears, Eagles and Saints. That largely depends on how Tampa Bay loses those games, though. Anything better than a 1-3 start would be a great thing for this team. Those games after the bye week will be really telling. If the Bucs can't beat the Lions, Falcons, Texans or Titans, then there is seriously something wrong and Todd Bowles will have to take the fall for it.
I largely disagree with the narrative that Bowles should be fired if the Bucs have a losing season no matter what. An 8-9 season should exceed expectations and earn him another year. However, losing too much out of the gate will probably have Bowles looking for a new job in 2024.
Which player will be the most surprising or most disappointing this season?
Santos: For my most surprising player, I'm looking at rookie linebacker SirVocea Dennis. I know he's not gonna beat out White or David for a starting position, but his presence in training camp and preseason was felt before he suffered a small injury. He's already received high praise from David, and I expect his quick blitzing skills to be showcased several times this year.
Unfortunately for Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, he failed to make that leap to prove he could be an NFL starting outside linebacker last year and was underwhelming. I do expect him to improve his game this season, but I don't think it'll be at the point to ensure fans he's a franchise player. He also has to look out for rookie Yaya Diaby and if he makes the most out of his opportunities.
Schiele: If anybody is going to surprise us, it's Baker Mayfield. People are projecting him to fail, just like he did on his previous teams. But what if he's good? As a matter of fact, what if he's great? What if he throws for around 3,500 yards, close to 30 touchdowns and limited interceptions? The Buccaneers will only go as far as the Heisman Trophy winner will take them.
What will the Bucs' record be this year?
Santos: The NFL is probably the most unpredictable thing ever.
Looking at the Bucs' schedules, I think there are 11 games that the team can snag a win. It's all going to come down to how Baker is doing and any injuries to starting players. I hope he proves me wrong, but I don't see Baker being the guy Tampa Bay needs to compete for a playoff spot.
With everything we talked about, I see the Bucs winning about half of the games I think they can compete in.
Tampa Bay will finish the season with a 6-11 record and miss out on the playoffs.
Schiele: It's a tough call because there is so much unknown about the Bucs. They're a much younger team with a new offensive coordinator and quarterback. Despite a losing record, the Bucs won the NFC South last year so they have to play a first-place schedule this season.
I have Tampa Bay finishing 6-11, which will not be enough to win the division this time.