ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — In five of the last seven years, the Cleveland Guardians have totaled at least 90 wins. One time was the pandemic-induced shortened season where they still made the playoffs. The other time was 2023 racking up 76 victories — the lowest total since 2012.
After a blistering 19-10 start in April, Cleveland is firmly atop the AL Central again and bound for another playoff appearance.
As for Tampa Bay, in five of the last seven years, the Rays have totaled at least 90 wins. One time was the pandemic-induced shortened season where the club reached the World Series. The other time was in 2017 totaling 80 victories.
Last year, the Rays left the month of April with a 23-6 record. After June 9 this season, the Rays are 31-34 with a 17.3% probability of making the postseason, per FanGraphs.
As you can see, Cleveland and Tampa Bay are running somewhat parallel lives. From the budget-conscious front offices to the investment in pitcher development and all the way down to the recent, unsuccessful, World Series run.
So, considering the Rays' tenuous position within the standings, it is noteworthy to remember how Cleveland acted when in a similar situation last season.
Cleveland did not clean house. The Guardians made one notable trade, shipping their most successful starter at the time, Aaron Civale, to the Rays for a top-100 prospect in Kyle Manzardo. Civale also had added value because he is under team control through 2025.
The Guardians made one significant move to fix an area of need. For them, it was power. Cleveland hit 124 home runs last season, which was last in MLB by 27. That is really bad.
As of Monday, the Rays are at 50 home runs, which currently puts them on pace for 123 dingers. That is slightly worse. The number is even more confounding considering the Rays hit a franchise-record 230 home runs in 2023.
Without digging into the weeds too much, there are four reasons for Tampa Bay's offensive struggles and they stem from one category — home runs.
As of Sunday night, both the Yankees and Orioles, two AL east competitors, have doubled Tampa Bay in that department.
You might ask, how has there been such a drop-off from one year to the next?
First, let’s start with the catcher position. In 2023, the Rays had 22 from a trio of options. This year, they have three. Two came from Rene Pinto and he’s not even with the club anymore. Their current catchers have left the yard once with six doubles.
Second, the Wander Franco fallout created two holes. Franco had 17 homers and Luke Raley had 19 homers. Raley was traded for Jose Caballero. The utility infielder was needed because with Taylor Walls hurt, the team had no shortstop entering the 2024 season. So, the Franco issue hurt them twice resulting in a loss of 36 home runs.
Finally, let’s talk about the underperformers, some of which can be attributed to injuries. Between Yandy Diaz, Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe and Jose Siri — a group that had 88 homers and all guys who hit 20 or more last season — they are projected for 35 right now. Based on last year, they should have 35 at the 65-game mark.
Add that all up and we are talking about a projected loss of almost 110 homers.
RELATED: Rays shortstop Wander Franco faces judge as officials accuse him of having sex with a 14-year-old
Now, could this mean they’re due for a huge run soon in the future? Absolutely. But as of right now, there are four big reasons why the offense has been struggling:
1. The catcher position
2. Wander Franco’s legal issues
3. Injuries
4. Regression
If we are being honest, No. 3 is uncontrollable, and No. 4 might resolve itself over a longer sample size beyond this season. No. 1 & No. 2 are the more permanent issues.
Cleveland is fortunate to have a superstar like Jose Ramirez anchoring that offense. That was supposed to be Wander Franco. It's why the club gave him a record 11-year deal worth $182 million. His talent was worthy of Hall of Fame comparisons and now he may never play Major League Baseball again.
The Rays, to no fault of their own, now lack a superstar hitter.
That is probably the biggest difference between the mild-mannered trade deadline Cleveland had last season and why the Rays could be more aggressive in July.
A lot of things have worked against the Rays this season, which gives us reasons to be more optimistic in 2025. The starting pitching should be better. Shane McClanahan, Ryan Pepiot, Zach Eflin, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Aaron Civale are, for now, all in play next year. That's not even including a promising arm like Joe Rock who Tampa Bay acquired in the offseason.
Also, the relief pitching should be better. As of June 9, the bullpen ERA is 4.44, which ranks No. 24 in Major League Baseball. The Rays have boasted a top-12 bullpen ERA in MLB since 2017. The last time they fell out of the top-12 was 2016 with an ERA of 4.09. They won 68 games that season. Maybe there is a necessary revaluation the Rays have to make with their relief arms, but overall, it is hard to imagine this group being this bad again considering their impeccable track record.
But hitting?
There is no true dependable power bat year-to-year.
Brandon Lowe hit 39 home runs in 2021, but 31 since. It does not help he has only played 198 games during that period. Because of his injury history, the Rays might not pick up his $10.5 million club option.
Josh Lowe is a great player and should be with the Rays a long time, but he hit 20 homers last season. In minor league baseball, his highest total was 22. Could he be a 25-30 homer guy at some point? Sure. But as far as projections go, it is probably safer to pencil him in for 20.
Jose Siri had 25 homers in 2023, but his power comes at a huge cost because he strikes out at an incredible rate of 36%. Only two hitters have a higher K% than Siri with a minimum of 150 at-bats: Joey Gallo & Will Benson.
Randy Arozarena is on his way to 20 HR again and has yet to surpass 23 in a season. Also, 2023 is looking like a clear outlier for Yandy Diaz who never hit more than 14 HR before exploding last year.
Isaac Paredes is an amazing talent, especially at 25 years old. He hit 31 home runs last season but is on pace for 25 HR this year. Don't get me wrong, that's really good — I would not classify him as a power hitter, though. (Paredes needs an article to himself to explain his unique brilliance.)
There is no masher. There is no one in this lineup who Kevin Cash can pencil into the heart of his order game after game and strike fear into opposing pitchers.
Prospect Junior Caminero might be that guy. Former first-round pick Xavier Isaac could be that guy, too, as a man who has hit 31 HR in 158 career minor league games. Future shortstop Carson Williams might add 20 homers at the big league level. Brayden Taylor has shown pop in his short MiLB career. The Rays actually have help on the way, but those players will not likely play on the same team until 2026, at best.
So it begs the question, what do the Rays do?
Do they make one big move, like Cleveland, and address an area of need like the catching position? Or, do they take this opportunity to focus on 2026, preemptively supporting their highly touted prospects at the Major League level?
There is not a wrong answer because cleaning house is not an option. The foundation is great. The Rays are built to be competitive again in 2025, but with the trade deadline seven weeks away, the team has to sell in some regard.
How much? That remains to be seen.
But judging by their history, this might be the only chance to properly regroup and prepare for the future because if Cleveland has shown us anything this season, success is never too far away — especially when you're a proven winner like the Rays.
Free agents after 2024:
Shawn Armstrong, RP
Brandon Lowe (club options in 2025 and 2026)
Phil Maton, RP
Amed Rosario, UTIL
Free agents after 2025:
Aaron Civale, SP
Yandy Diaz, 1B (club option in 2026)
Zach Eflin, SP
Pete Fairbanks (club option in 2026)
Zack Littell, SP
Colin Poche, RP
As you can see, the Rays have pieces to trade who will become free agents after the season. Besides Lowe, who has options, the other three will not extract incredible value given they are rentals and not superior talents. They will most likely be traded.
But let's say the front office wants to focus on re-tooling for the 2026 season. It would behoove them to float the next list of names out there on the market and see what the return would be. That does not even include someone like Isaac Paredes who is en route to his first All-Star season, Tampa Bay's best hitter and under team control through 2027.
You might say, why would the Rays trade their budding 25-year-old star?
Well, 2026 & 2027 would be expensive arbitration years and he is currently blocking Junior Caminero or Brayden Taylor at third base. He is the kind of piece that would provide a heavy haul in return and the team would not lose much at the position if we are to believe someone like Junior Caminero is the real deal.
Of course, the Rays should not be frivolously trading pieces. The price has to be right, and for some players, teams will need to overpay to acquire them.
In the end, Tampa Bay has not been in this position in a very long time and the decisions they make now will determine the ceiling they have in the future within a stacked AL East where the Orioles and Yankees are, seemingly, going nowhere anytime soon.
Rays general manager Erik Neander will tell us his answer on July 30, MLB trade deadline day.