ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The narrative surrounding the 2024 Tampa Bay Rays suggests the squad will take a step back this year.
And we've heard this before...
Yet, every time the Rays are doubted, they manage to succeed and find a way to get into the postseason.
Now, their postseason performance has a disappointing history, but we will worry about that when and if the day arrives.
The Rays will have plenty of new faces this year, which creates uncertainty, but the core group remains with the expectation that Tampa Bay will make its sixth-straight postseason.
Let's break this team down into different units:
Starting Pitching
The rotation is set. Zach Eflin will be the Opening Day starter with Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Tyler Alexander and Ryan Pepiot taking the bump in that order the next four games. Last year, the team broke camp with Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Zach Eflin. Well, Glasnow was traded to the Dodgers, McClanahan is out for the season recovering from Tommy John surgery while Springs and Rasmussen could be late additions to the club after recovering from their own injury issues one season ago.
Eflin is all that remains, but he has earned the right to pitch on Opening Day for the first time in his career. After signing the most lucrative free agent deal in Rays history, Eflin backed it up going 16-8 last year with a 3.50 ERA in 31 starts. Civale did not settle in well after getting traded to town before the deadline, but there is optimism he will look more like the pitcher that was cruising in Cleveland, sporting a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts. While Littell, Alexander and Pepiot are not necessarily proven starters, they should be highly efficient. The hope is we see Taj Bradley return to the rotation at some point in May as he recovers from a pec injury suffered during Spring Training.
There will be variability with this group, but it is stronger than you probably think on paper.
Relief Pitching
If the Tampa Bay Rays reach 100 wins this season, the reason will probably be the relief pitching. Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Shawn Armstrong, Colin Poche and a newly acquired pitcher from Houston, Phil Maton, round out a stacked five-man core. Jacob Waguespack and Chris Devenski, who could be the next Littell or Springs, can also throw 2 to 3 innings, if needed.
As always, expect a lot of changes with this group throughout the year. Nobody tinkers with arms like the Rays. They will shuttle players back-and-forth from Durham to St. Pete. They will also be opportunistic with trades a la acquiring Robert Stephenson last year and turning him into a guy who received $33 million from the Angels in free agency. There is a lot to be excited about with this unit.
Outfielders
Let's first talk about the injuries. Josh Lowe suffered an oblique issue in Spring Training and is out for the foreseeable future. That is a huge loss. It is tough to replace a guy who hit .292 with 20 homers and 30-plus stolen bases. Also, Jonny DeLuca, who was also a part of that Glasnow deal, broke his hand in Santo Domingo and will be out another month. So, Kevin Cash and the organization have a thin group now with Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri and Richie Palacios with Harold Ramirez and Amed Rosario able to shag fly balls, if needed. When fully healthy, this will be a fast and defensively stout group. We are just wondering if Arozarena can take that next step becoming a potential MVP-type player. You pretty much know he will give you, at least, 20 homers and 20 stolen bases, but can he become a 30-30 guy?
Infielders
At this point, it is hard to believe Wander Franco will ever play another game for the Rays again. Without editorializing on the charges against him, from a purely baseball standpoint, he is an irreplaceable player. Taylor Walls will begin the season on the IL, so the team traded Luke Raley to Seattle for Jose Caballero. Speed and defense will be two words to describe many hitters on the 2024 team, and Caballero certainly fits that bill. Yandy Diaz finished 6th in MVP voting last season. He will continue to anchor this lineup along with third baseman Isaac Paredes, who hit 31 homers with 98 RBI in 2023. A healthy Brandon Lowe would provide much-needed pop to this lineup. He hit three long balls in Spring Training and feels fine for Opening Day, which is a great sign. Curtis Mead, Rosario and Ramirez might get some looks in the infield as well. If the hitting needs some punch in the middle of the year, expect the team to call up Junior Caminero from Durham to help them out.
While we should not expect the Rays to jump out to another 13-0 start to begin the season, Fangraphs has this team projected to win 86 games, which is considered the fifth-best mark in MLB.
It is time to play ball on Thursday against the Blue Jays and the 2024 season will also play in the shadow of an important vote as the city has still not approved its new stadium in downtown St. Pete yet.