WASHINGTON – The $4,000 that Rep. Luke Messer of Indiana donated to Jeb Bush in October was no surprise, considering he heads the state steering committee for the former Florida governor's presidential campaign.
But that same day, Messer also gave $4,000 to a rival presidential candidate -- Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
Messer isn't the only early Bush backer placing side bets on Rubio, or changing teams altogether.
Campaign finance reports show a number of donors and key supporters have migrated in recent months from Bush to Rubio as the Florida senator continues to outshine his former mentor on the campaign trail.
More are poised to make the jump, especially if Bush does poorly in New Hampshire's primary on Tuesday, said Brian Ballard, a Tallahassee fundraiser and former Bush backer who now supports Rubio.
"Many of them want to wait until after New Hampshire to do something meaningful," Ballard said. "I would say the vast majority (of Bush contributors) who are going to continue to be involved in the presidential election are going to be for Marco. And those who aren't ready to pivot, shortly after New Hampshire, will make the final pivot."
Ballard, who knows both men well, gave the pro-Bush super PAC Right to Rise $20,000 in March.
But he publicly parted ways with the Bush campaign in November, after denouncing the super PAC for its negative attacks on Rubio. Ballard followed up his criticism with a $25,000 donation to the pro-Rubio super PAC -- Conservative Solutions PAC.
Federal Election Commission reports released this week show other contributors appear to be re-evaluating their loyalty to Bush as well.
Scores of donors who gave generously to Bush and Right to Rise in the spring and summer of 2015 began contributing to Rubio and Conservative Solutions by the end of the year.
The records, which cover fundraising activity through Dec. 31, include a number of people whose ties to the Bush family go back years. Those donors include:
– Bernie Marcus, a billionaire philanthropist from Florida who co-founded Home Depot. He gave $1 million to Right to Rise in January, and he and his wife, Wilma, gave $5,400 directly to Bush in June. In December, the two gave $7,400 to Rubio's campaign.
– Victor Ashe, the former mayor of Knoxville, Tenn., who served as ambassador to Poland under President George W. Bush. Ashe gave Bush $2,700 in June. In November, he gave the same amount to Rubio's campaign.
– Robert McNair, owner of the Houston Texans football team and a friend of Bush's father, former President George H. W. Bush. McNair gave $500,000 to Right to Rise in June and $500,000 to Conservative Solutions in August. He also gave similar amounts to several other presidential candidates over 2015.
Al Cardenas, a Miami lawyer and senior adviser to the Bush campaign, said he's not worried about defections to Rubio or any other candidate. If Bush does well Tuesday versus fellow establishment candidates Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, Cardenas believes his supporters will stick with him.
"My prediction is that Jeb will win that (establishment) lane and he'll head into South Carolina with momentum," Cardenas said, referring to the state that will hold the first-in-the-South GOP primary on Feb. 20. "It's the first state where he really has a good ground game. And as long as he remains in the top three, he's in the hunt."
It wasn't supposed to be this way.
When Bush entered the race in June, two months after Rubio, it was widely assumed he'd be the one with the juggernaut campaign and would pick up Rubio backers as the Florida senator struggled to gain traction.
By mid-summer, Right to Rise had collected more than $100 million and Bush had eclipsed the rest of the GOP presidential field in collecting endorsements.
But that was before Donald Trump skewered Bush as out of touch and "low-energy." Rubio's under-the-radar approach, bolstered by strong debate performances, began paying dividends in the fall.
As Rubio's poll numbers rose and Bush's sank, Rubio became a logical alternative for Bush donors -- -- especially those in Florida. Many began to doubt the former governor's abilities on the stump or, like Ballard, were angry over how his campaign was being conducted.
The Iowa caucus, where Rubio finished a strong third with 23% and Bush managed only 2.8% and sixth place, only reinforced those doubts. Rubio then snagged backing from Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and eight congressmen, vaulting him ahead of Bush on the endorsement scoreboard.
Conservative blogger Eric Erickson said Bush supporters became more convinced it was time to pick the protege over the mentor.
"A donor to the Jeb Bush super PAC emailed me the night of the Iowa caucuses as the results were in," Erickson told National Public Radio Friday. "And all his email said was Rubio, Rubio, Rubio."
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Contributing: Maureen Groppe and Christopher Schnaars, USA TODAY
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Twitter: @ledgeking
