ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2024 U.S. Winter Outlook on Wednesday, and some Floridians may be wondering what type of winter season they might experience this year.
Thanks to a slowly developing La Nina, NOAA is predicting drier-than-average conditions for the Gulf Coast, as well as the lower mid-Atlantic states.
"La Nina conditions are expected to develop later this fall and typically lead to a more northerly storm track during the winter months, leaving the southern tier of the country warmer and drier," forecasters said in this year's outlook.
Ultimately, Floridians should expect warmer-than-average temperatures this winter season, as those conditions are favored strongest along the Gulf Coast and for most of Texas.
Alongside warmer-than-average temps, forecasters added that drought is likely to develop or worsen across portions of the Gulf Coast and the Southwest.
“Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought,” said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief.”
Thankfully, according to NOAA's Seasonal Drought Outlook, Florida doesn't appear to have any drought development likely during the winter season.
Finally, in terms of precipitation, NOAA forecasters say the greatest likelihood for drier-than-average conditions is in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, including Texas and southern New Mexico.
