ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — This week in politics…We are down to the wire with less than 5 days until the midterm election. At the top of the ticket in Florida is the race for governor, incumbent Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis vs. Democratic challenger Charlie Crist.
President Joe Biden was here in the Sunshine State this week to campaign for Crist and Democratic Senate Candidate Val Demings, but even with the midterms just days away some folks are already thinking ahead to 2024.
See another president is coming to Florida, former President Donald Trump will be in Miami-Dade Sunday to campaign for Republican Senator Marco Rubio. Someone who won’t be there? Governor Ron DeSantis who’s holding separate campaign events on the Gulf Coast. Interesting.
The dueling events are fueling the flames of talks of a budding rivalry between the two and a potential 2024 matchup, as GOP voters have signaled them as the top choices for the Republican presidential nominee in 2 years.
"It's setting up all the chatter about Trump vs. DeSantis going into the GOP primary for the presidency. Rubio is going along with it. I think Rick Scott is going along with it, so it's going to be very interesting that Ron DeSantis isn't going to be on stage with Donald Trump,” says Peter Schorsch, Publisher of Florida Politics.
“That event is happening Nov. 6 and I think that's the unofficial kickoff to the 2024 election,” Schorsch added.
Back to 2022: candidates are making it a point in the final days to campaign in the Tampa Bay area, likely because the I-4 corridor is not definitively red or blue and has perhaps the most potential to swing an election one way or another.
"It is the I-4 corridor that is still the purple area and in particular the Tampa Bay area and in particular Pinellas County is really where the persuadable voters still exist," says 10 Tampa Bay Political Analyst Dr. Lars Hafner.
A look at the numbers: As of Thursday morning, more than 3.5 million Floridians have cast ballots ahead of Election Day, and the GOP is leading Democrats in early voting by more than 200,000 ballots.
There are more than a million more voters in Florida than there were in the last midterm and in just a few years, Republicans have flipped voter registration numbers. In 2018 there were ~257,000 more Democratic voters in the state. In 2022 there are ~292,000 more Republican voters.
How have things shifted in Bay Area counties along the I-4 corridor since the last midterm?
Pinellas has a relatively even split among registrations, but is trending redder:
Dem Voters in 2018: 239,092, in 2022: 237,258
GOP Voters in 2018: 236,186, in 2022: 246,303
NPA Voters in 2018: 189,787, in 2022: 196,175
Hillsborough has more democratic voters, but has added more republicans and independent voters:
Dem Voters in 2018: 340,531, in 2022: 342,075
GOP Voters in 2018: 273,546, in 2022: 288,919
NPA Voters in 2018: 250,090, in 2022: 273,161
Polk has a relatively close split among registrations, but is trending redder:
Dem Voters in 2018: 148,868, in 2022: 148,622
GOP Voters in 2018: 151,003, in 2022: 174,893
NPA Voters in 2018: 120,315, in 2022: 130,205
Early voting wraps up this weekend, to see times and locations, as well as what's on your ballot, check out our 10 Tampa Bay Voter Toolkit.