TAMPA, Fla. — It was once a state coveted, even crucial for presidential candidates on their path to the White House, but Tuesday’s results and recent trends show Florida is far from the purple, battleground state it once was,
“We've seen the state of Florida go from blue to purple to a darker purple, but now it's ruby red. Last night was a true indication of that,” 10 Tampa Bay political analyst Dr. Lars Hafner said.
From battleground to conservative breeding ground, Republicans saw major wins across the state, flipping historically blue and swing areas along the I-4 corridor to solid red. President-elect Donald Trump won the state by 13%, quadrupling his 2020 margin of victory in the state over President Biden.
“Other than Trump winning the state, the other race to have watched was the Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida) race. Rick Scott has never won by more than a handful of votes when he ran twice for governor and the first time for Senate, and last night, he won by over 1 million votes,” Hafner said. "That kind of tells you that the state of Florida has trended totally to the Republican Party.”
A similar result was seen in the 2022 midterm when Gov. Ron DeSantis won his reelection in a 19-point blowout over former governor and Congressman Charlie Christ.
“We didn't know whether the DeSantis victory was an anomaly because he was running against the tired, underfunded candidate and really blew him out of the water. So you have to watch a couple elections after that to see where the trends are,” added Hafner who says the latest election cements Florida as a red state.
How the state got here is seen both on the map and the voter rolls. In 2017, there were ~300,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. Now Republicans outnumber Dems by ~1,000,000.
“That movement from down 300 to becoming a million today began because of COVID restrictions in the northeast,” Tom Gaitens, state committeeman for the Hillsborough County Republican Party, said.
Gaitens says how DeSantis navigated COVID shortly after his first election expedited the pendulum swing, bringing in new Floridians and Republican voters.
“We've always used the moniker 'the Free State of Florida,' and that truly has been the mechanism that's been the magnetism, that's been the aphrodisiac for voters to come here,” Gaitens added.
While he wasn’t on the ballot himself after dropping out of the race for the GOP presidential nomination, the governor picked up a pair of victories on Tuesday.
Experts say he took a political risk by putting his voice (and controversially) state resources behind a campaign against ballot measures for marijuana and abortion rights. The last several weeks saw the governor crisscrossing the state speaking against both proposed constitutional amendments.
Each failed to meet the 60% threshold to pass on Tuesday.
“He certainly got his mojo back,” Hafner said. “For several years here in Florida, he could do no wrong, and anything he wanted the [Republican-led] legislature granted him."
"Then he went to run for president, and his great star really fell really quickly, and he came back to the state and in this last legislative session, legislators were doing their own thing and not paying attention to what DeSantis wanted like they had in the past,” Hafner said, adding his regained clout could impact legislative sessions in his final two years in office.
“It shows that he is not the political irrelevance that the other side would like him to be, and even some within our own party, we're hoping. I think the state legislature is going to have to deal with them a little bit differently than they kind of anticipated, and that that's going to show up in the next session,” Gaitens said.
“Now we're looking at a two-dog race, maybe for 2028 with JD Vance and Ron DeSantis to run for the 2028 ticket. So as conservatives and Republicans in the state of Florida, I think we're excited because it shows that we do what we say and we say what we're going to do,” Gaitens added.
While DeSantis won what he set out to do this November, Hafner highlights the majority of Floridians did in fact vote in favor of the ballot questions.
“People have to still realize a strong majority voted for those two amendments, so there's still that out here in the state of Florida,” Hafner said.
And that’s what the Florida Democratic Party can look at as they hit the reset button after another dismal election, as proponents for abortion rights say they are "galvanized" after the loss.
“We’ve got a lot of work to do to make sure we are carrying our message of equality, affordability, of making sure women have abortion access,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said during a watch party in Orlando on Tuesday.
Fried commended the hard work put in by Democratic supporters on the ground and highlighted wins in the Orange County area, among them school board races and Monique Worrell’s victory to regain her spot as state attorney.
While it’s clear that Florida is a solid red state, experts say there is always a path in politics.
“Florida has every opportunity to be a two-party state. It has been in the past, and maybe it will be again, but the right leadership has to really take it forward and get people motivated, energized and enthusiastic about why Democrats should be a part of the puzzle here in the state of Florida,” Hafner added.
It’s something Republicans like Tom Gaitens acknowledge as well.
“That pendulum, historically has always fluctuated back and forth. When you gain so much power, often comes with that arrogance. So I would encourage my brothers and sisters in the Republican Party in the state legislature to govern wisely, with humility and concern for all Floridians, and I think that will help maintain the straw hold for a longer period of time. But this is politics, people. People have like of underdog,” Gaitens said.
Up next on the minds of party leaders across Florida is the 2026 gubernatorial election, which will have open primaries on both sides.