ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — More than a year into the pandemic, many are wondering when COVID-19 restrictions will fizzle out and life will get a little closer to normal.
Researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington have some new predictions. Due to the seasonality of the virus, they believe the number of cases will continue to go down over the summer but ramp up later in the fall. They're also forecasting 600,000 deaths by June.
Keep in mind, these are predictions with many variables – whether people continue to wear masks, social distance or get vaccinated.
Weather plays a factor because IHME Chief Strategy Officer Dr. Ali Mokdad says the level of herd immunity that's needed in the winter to stop the circulation of the virus is about 20 percent more than what you need in the summer. He says if we don't have the right amount of people vaccinated by fall, what happens will depend on Floridians’ behaviors.
“We will have a very close to normal summer. Everything is going our way. Cases are coming down. Mortality will be below 200 a day in the country, so it's very hard for us to come in the winter and tell the public hold on a second, we're heading into a surge, and we need now to have a higher percentage wearing masks. We need to cut down on our mobility," he said. "We're swimming against the current come the beginning of winter because we've had successful months due to vaccination and the weather helping us.”
Researchers are seeing fewer people wearing masks and more people getting out, which can continue to spread the virus.
“The question is how will Americans behave when things are getting better? From previous experience, we let down our guard much faster than expected, and that's why we had a surge last summer, especially in the southern states," Mokdad said.
Floridians tend to stay inside in the summer where they can take in the A/C, and that could be a problem.
“Florida is a little bit different than anybody else. There's an advantage right now, but in the hot months you have to be extra careful as things are getting better," he added.
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