ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Florida is on track to at least double the number of COVID-19 deaths by the end of the year, according to a model by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
The IHME model, cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force, projects 26,251 coronavirus deaths by Jan. 1, 2021, largely based on a "mandates easing" scenario.
This means there is no major change in how many people wear a mask and mandates that once were in effect -- such as Florida's statewide stay-at-home order -- never again will be re-imposed.
But if Florida's mask use rises to 95 percent relatively quickly and mandates were again implemented if an outbreak occurred, about 6,000 fewer Floridians would die, the model projects.
According to the Florida Department of Health's latest report, 11,750 residents have died from COVID-19 through Sept. 3.
Nationwide, the IHME model projects 410,451 U.S. coronavirus deaths by Jan. 1, 2021, if the United States continues with its current measures at mitigation; the model also shows 122,070 fewer people could die if nearly everyone wore a mask.
The model in late March projected Florida's peak in the pandemic would come in May, a time when the state could reach the maximum number of hospital beds needed, with thousands of deaths. The time frame was off: July saw a peak in hospitalization rates, with the highest number of daily deaths reported in mid-August.
But it also projected, at the time, at least 5,500 COVID-19 deaths by the beginning of August. The state surpassed more than 7,000 total reported deaths on July 31.
The model isn't perfect, and its creators don't claim it as such. Numbers change with "new evidence as soon as it becomes available," according to the IHME's website, "and our estimates will change in response to these data."
"We do this to make the tool as useful as possible to governments and hospital administrators, who need to know how the situation is changing in real time. Our aim is to produce the best possible predictions given what we know today – and to continually improve these estimates tomorrow."
Masks are known to be an effective way of limiting the spread of COVID-19. When an infected person coughs or sneezes, particles containing the virus can land on a person or become inhaled, leading to further infection. A mask helps to reduce how far air can be expelled.
The model shows Florida currently is at 58 percent mask usage -- 95 percent is the goal.
"Our analysis indicates that masks, whether cloth or medical grade, can reduce infections for mask-wearers by at least one-third," according to the IHME.
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