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Epidemiologists: Pinellas County could be Florida's 'poster child' for stopping spread of COVID-19

While infection rates in most counties stayed above 5 percent over the last week, the only county seeing a drop in new cases is Pinellas County.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Coronavirus numbers seem to be declining in the state, but epidemiologists say the infection rate is still increasing in Florida.

"I think we're still plateauing. I don't think we've seen a decline by any stretch, we see this drop in this daily, but again, the seven to seven-day weekly average, we have an increase in the positivity rate of 18.9 percent for the past seven days from the previous period. So the positives are still coming in," Dr. Jay Wolfson with USF Public Health said.

Wolfson says the numbers in Tampa Bay trend the same. While infection rates in most counties stayed above 5 percent over the last week, the only county that's seeing a positive change is Pinellas.

"The rates are trending downward in terms of positivity, in terms of, of cases, terms of hospitalizations. This is a good sign whatever is happening." Wolfson said.

The county seems to be doing something right. Pinellas County Chair Pat Gerard says their mask mandate and bars being closed have slowed the spread of the virus.

"Everybody is cautiously optimistic, you know, nobody's going to take their foot off the pedal yet, but we're optimistic," Gerard said.

If the infection rate stays at 5 percent or below over the next five to six weeks, epidemiologists say other counties in Florida will have to follow.

"We have to keep doing what we're doing. In order to keep it down and you know to get past, I don't know if this is the second wave or what it is, but we need to continue doing this in order to not have to do anything more serious," Gerard said. 

Wolfson said it takes sustained change to really make a dent in this Pandemic. We're going to need the percent of positive tests below 5 percent for a good six to 10 weeks across the state before we can say Florida has flattened the curve. 

"What Pinellas county is doing is working. They're pushing it down and if they can keep it down, if they keep it below five, then push it down to three and two, they'll be a poster child for the state," Wolfson said.

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