TAMPA, Fla. — With gyms opening Monday in Florida and restaurants increasing capacity to 50 percent, you might expect a big boost to the drowning economy.
You're right about a boost but it likely won't be sustained.
Dr. Brad Kamp, the Chair of the Economics Department at the University of South Florida, says people will be quick to get out the door and spend some money but with so much uncertainty regarding the virus itself, along with unemployment and financial strain, economic recovery will take a long time.
"There’s a pent-up demand. People haven’t been able to go to their favorite restaurants for close to two months. The first week or two, you’ll probably see numbers higher than 50 percent. The tips will be bigger and so on because people are happy to be back out," Kamp said.
For some businesses, that early jolt might not be enough. Patty Durrell owns Rock Solid Fitness in Dunedin. Her operation is small -- nine employees, 130 members, and personalized fitness in a one-on-one setting.
She's determined to keep her doors open.
"I’m really committed to our members and their health. Your health is an investment we need to be making and as long as they’re willing and able to come, I want to have our doors open to provide that service," said Durrell.
Since the pandemic, she's had 36 members completely stop coming to her gym. Durrell is also worried about the bottom line once the money from the Payroll Protection Program runs out.
"If we’re not producing profit, we can’t stay in business," she said.
Gym memberships and restaurants also tend to be luxuries when money is tight so once the allure of getting back out there wears off, gyms and restaurants will be on shaky ground explained Kamp.
Fortunately, in the long-term, Kamp believes both industries will survive. There's just no telling how long that will take.
"Hopefully we’re opening up at the right time and slow enough that we can suspend the loss of jobs and get the jobs back and get on the road to recovery," said Kamp.
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