(USA Today) The battle for Florida's Republican soul is about to begin.
Marco Rubio, who rode a Tea Party wave into the U.S. Senate five years ago, and his mentor, former governor Jeb Bush, who closely identifies with the GOP establishment, are expected to announce soon they're officially running for president in 2016. And it all starts with Florida, the nation's most pivotal swing state and the political base for both men.
No Floridian has ever been a major-party nominee for president — or vice president, for that matter. Every four years, Republicans in the state donate tens of millions of dollars to candidates elsewhere in the country, and help one win the White House, almost always picking the winner.
But with Bush, 62, and Rubio, 43, expected to vie for the GOP nomination next year, Florida is finally poised to land a spot on a national ticket.
Bush is raising millions and leads the GOP field in most national polls. Rubio, set to enter the race Monday, is given less chance to win, but his Hispanic heritage and telegenic presence make him a potentially attractive running mate if someone other than Bush nabs the nomination.
Bush and Rubio live less than three miles apart in South Florida and are personally and politically close. Rubio was a state lawmaker from West Miami when Bush was governor. Rubio ascended to speaker of the Florida House in 2006, just as Bush was leaving the governor's mansion and returning to private life in Coral Gables.
Their anticipated competition on the campaign trail reportedly hasn't soured their friendship, even as Republican activists and donors in the state begin the awkward process of choosing sides.
Much of the money and establishment support has gravitated toward Bush. Some fans of both have said Rubio should run for re-election to the Senate next year and leave the White House campaign to Bush.
"I think Marco is a truly outstanding person. I love him. A fine man. (But) I love Jeb Bush more," said Al Hoffman Jr., a Florida real estate developer and former Republican National Committee finance chairman who co-chaired George W. Bush's presidential campaigns.
Hoffman embodies the priorities of Florida's Old Guard, whose members believe Bush is more seasoned than Rubio and better qualified to win the presidency.
"Jeb comes across as the more accomplished person, more experienced ... smarter," said Hoffman, who chaired Rubio's 2010 Senate campaign committee and tried to talk him out of running for president. "When I think of Jeb Bush, I think of accomplishments. When I think about Marco Rubio, I see (him) working hard to learn the job. I see great potential."
Supporters of Rubio say they like his fresh ideas and energy. The implication is that the nation isn't excited about the possibility of another Bush in the White House.
"Jeb's No. 1 challenge is going to be the fact that both his brother and father have been president," said state Rep. Matt Caldwell. "Even if only 5 or 6 percent of the voters really have a hard time with that, that could be (the difference)."
With a national network of eager donors, Bush is having an easy time raising money through his Right to Rise super PAC. His allies have set an initial goal of $100 million, with about 25% coming from Florida sources, according to news reports.
The effort has been so successful that donors have reportedly been asked not to give more than $1 million.
Floridians leading Bush's fundraising push include Hoffman of North Palm Beach andMel Sembler, a shopping center developer from St. Petersburg who co-chaired Mitt Romney's Florida finance committee in 2012, when Romney was the GOP presidential nominee.
Rubio's Rolodex of Sunshine State givers is smaller but includes Miami auto dealerNorman Braman, a billionaire philanthropist. Braman told The New York Times recently it's time for the Bush family to "get out of the way" and make room for Rubio.
Rubio supporters also have formed a super PAC called Conservative Solutions to compete with the Right to Rise super PAC formed by Bush's allies.
Many GOP members of the state's congressional delegation and the Florida Legislature have relationships with both men and may be reluctant to choose between them, at least until they officially declare their candidacies.
GOP Gov. Rick Scott said earlier this year he would "most likely" endorse a candidate before Florida holds its primary in March. Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, who served with Rubio in the House and is a good friend of the senator's, also hasn't declared a preference.
Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, figures to do well among Miami's politically influential Hispanic community. But Bush, who speaks Spanish, has a Mexican-American wife and preaches inclusion, has made serious inroads there as well.
A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed Bush leading the presumptive GOP field in the Sunshine State, but with only 24% support. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was next (15%) with Rubio third (12%) among the 13 named candidates, according to the survey of 428 registered Republicans. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
"Bush has a lead over the field in his home state of Florida, but it's not anywhere near insurmountable," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.
