TAMPA, Fla. — When it comes to the effects of climate change on our strawberries, the future isn't looking too sweet.
A recent study by the Environmental Defense Fund predicts that Hillsborough County, where most of Florida's strawberries are grown, will be too hot to effectively produce the crop by 2050.
“Agriculture has been hard hit by extreme weather in Florida especially, sustaining over one billion in losses from Hurricane Ian in 2022 alone," Dawn Shirreffs, the non-profit's director, said.
Hillsborough County currently sits in what scientists call the "goldilocks zone," where precipitation and temperature conditions are ideal for growing strawberries, especially in the winter.
But even small average temperature changes in the future could put the crops in jeopardy.
Researchers looked at a future scenario of a temperature rise of 4.3 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050. While this may not seem like a lot, even modest changes in temperature "can lead to significant changes in key crop thresholds," the study says.
This predicted average temperature rise would increase the number of "killing degree days" — days when it's either too hot for strawberries to grow or high temperatures kill the plants.
Hillsborough County growers "can anticipate an 11% decline in the crop by 2050, and a 17% decline in early yields by 2050," Shirreffs added.
Those early yields are what keep Florida competitive with strawberries grown in California and Mexico.
So, what's the solution?
While there's no way to avoid the impact of climate change, there are ways for farmers to adapt.
One of those ways, according to the study, is to shift the strawberry growing zone to north-central Florida counties, like Marion County.
Researchers say the climate in Marion County by 2050 will resemble today’s climate of Hillsborough County
"Besides moving production north, a number of other adaptation options exist including new hybrids, shading, automation, sustainable cooling, and aquifer recharging," the study says.
One company already working to adapt is Wish Farms, located in Plant City.
Wish Farms growers have already begun selling early-yield hybrid varieties such as "Sweet Sensation" strawberries.