Gov. Rick Scott's future and Republican control of the U.S. Senate may intersect on Facebook Monday. Scott said he has a "big announcement" to make. If it's to say he's a candidate for the U.S. Senate then Florida becomes a battleground for control of Congress, according to national pundits.
The GOP controls the chamber with a 51-47 lead over Democrats with two independents. Scott is term-limited out of office in November and many, including President Donald Trump, say he is the Republicans best bet to beat three-term incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson.
The Cook Political Report will move Florida into the toss-up column if Scott is a candidate. His enormous wealth, he pumped $83 million of his own money into two gubernatorial campaigns, approval rating as governor (58 percent in February), and a growing economy provides a strong foundation for a campaign.
But Nelson has pulled off five consecutive state-wide elections since losing a 1990 primary to former Gov. Lawton Chiles. The incumbent is backed by a base energized in opposition to President Donald Trump and his policies concerning guns, minorities, immigrants, and women.
Given the stakes, both parties are expected to funnel tens of millions of dollars into both campaigns. Consultants say a Nelson-Scott race may set Florida records for campaign spending, exceeding the $110 million spent in 2016.
A Scott-Nelson campaign will answer five questions:
1. Can Bill Nelson top a ticket?
Nelson has won three consecutive Senate races, and two Cabinet races before that, but this is his first campaign in a non-presidential year and as the leader of the Democratic ticket. Nelson has raised $10 million. Scott spent $70 million of his own money in 2012 and another $13 million, a large chunk at the close, in 2016.
2. Will there be an anti-Trump wave?
The most important person in the race is not on the ticket. The big question is whether the unexpected voters who turned out for Donald Trump and helped him to win Florida will turn out when Donald Trump is not on the ballot?
3. Did the Parkland shootings cost Republican incumbents support of the National Rifle Association and a growing student movement?
It is unclear whether the school safety bill with the first Florida gun restrictions in a generation satisfies voters motivated by gun and school safety. The NRA is challenging the three-day waiting period and background checks in the bill that Scott signed.
“He may have angered some hardcore Second Amendment supporters by giving in any way on the gun issue,” said Nova Southeastern University political scientist Charles Zelden. “It might actually result in some of them deciding not to vote for him.”
4. Will there be a storm effect?
An estimated 100,000 Puerto Ricans relocated to Florida after Hurricane Maria. On average, Puerto Rican voters favor Democrats by a 2 -1 margin. The President has been harshly criticized for his handling of storm relief to the island while Scott has taken visible steps to help the recovery and relocation.
5. Can Gov. Rick Scott count on Sen. Marco Rubio?
In Tallahassee, during a spring break, the Senator was asked if he will campaign vigorously for Rick Scott against Bill Nelson. Here’s Rubio’s response:
“I do not campaign against Bill Nelson. Bill Nelson and I have a very good working relationship. I think come election day we both understand. ...
"I’ll support the Republican nominee. If Rick Scott runs it will be him. And I think he would a good job if he were Senator. It’s not an indictment on Bill. I could not ask for a better partner – especially from the other party.
“But come election time I want my party to win just like he wants his party to win. I don’t have anything negative to say about him but I clearly want more Republicans in the Senate.”
